Scientific Papers

Evaluation of a proposal for reliable low-cost grid power with 100% wind, water, and solar

In this paper, we evaluate that study [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060–15065] and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.

Future cost-competitive electricity systems and
their impact on US CO2 emissions

Our results show that when using future anticipated costs for wind and solar, carbon dioxide emissions from the US electricity sector can be reduced by up to 80% relative to 1990 levels, without an increase in the levelized cost of electricity. The reductions are possible with current technologies and without electrical storage. Wind and solar power increase their share of electricity production as the system grows to encompass large-scale weather patterns.

Modeling Solar Irradiance and Solar PV Power Output to Create a Resource Assessment Using Linear Multiple Multivariate Regression

The increased use of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells as energy sources on electric grids has created the need for more accessible solar irradiance and power production estimates for use in power modeling software. In the present paper, a novel technique for creating solar irradiance estimates is introduced. A solar PV resource dataset created by combining numerical weather prediction assimilation model variables, satellite data, and high-resolution ground-based measurements is also presented.

Demonstrating the effect of vertical and directional
shear for resource mapping of wind power

The use of wind energy is growing around the world, and its growth is set to continue into the foreseeable future. Estimates of the wind speed and power are helpful to assess the potential of new sites for development and to facilitate electric grid integration studies. In the present paper, wind speed and power resource mapping analyses are performed.

A new formulation for rotor equivalent wind speed for
wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting

The spurt of growth in the wind energy industry has led to the development of many new technologies to study this energy resource and improve the efficiency of wind turbines. One of the key factors in wind farm characterization is the prediction of power output of the wind farm that is a strong function of the turbulence in the wind speed and direction. A new formulation for calculating the expected power from a wind turbine in the presence of wind shear, turbulence, directional shear and direction fluctuations is presented.

Linear programming techniques for developing an optimal electrical system including high-voltage direct-current transmission and storage

The planning and design of an electric power system, including high-voltage direct-current transmission, is a complex optimization problem. The optimization must integrate and model the engineering requirements and limitations of the generation, while simultaneously balancing the system electric load at all times. The problem is made more difficult with the introduction of variable generators, such as wind and solar photovoltaics. In the present paper, we introduce two comprehensive linear programming techniques to solve these problems.